The twelve-page “Heritage Business Case - Douglas Bay Horse Tramway Continuation to the Sea Terminal” will be the subject of a Supplementary Order Paper at this month's sitting of Tynwald on June 16th.
The Minister for Infrastructure, Tim Crookall MHK, is to move that ‘Tynwald notes the draft business case for the reinstatement of Douglas Bay Horse Tramway to the Sea Terminal and the likely cost of up to £3 million, and supports its progress through the capital project procedures in accordance with financial regulations.’
The business case outlines how the Department of Infrastructure will be seeking £3 million of funding, despite the head of railways telling Manx Radio it would cost ‘around £2 million’ as recently as April this year.
Charles Guard, a Manx broadcaster, musician, historian, author, and heritage campaigner, says the business case for the project is the "biggest fudge" he's seen in Manx politics.
As well as the projected increase of around 50% in costs associated with the project, Mr Guard draws attention to the wording of the motion, in which he suggests the Department of Infrastructure is really saying, ‘this isn't going to happen.’
And he calls for a member of Tynwald to stand up in this debate and move an amendment which says, simply, Tynwald approves this business case and instructs the Department of Infrastructure to get on with the job as soon as possible.
The video— recommended— is available below.
READ the ‘Business Case’ in full HERE
Video transcript below.
So, ladies and gentlemen, here it is. At last, the business case for the reinstatement of the Douglas Bay horse tramway from Broadway along this green grass to the sea terminal. We've been waiting for months, actually, for years for this. And here it is at last. And it's going to be debated in the next sitting of Tynwald. So is this a moment for celebration? For joy? Well, no, actually, because in my humble opinion, this is the biggest fudge I've ever come across in all my years of following Manx politics.
Let me tell you why. Not so long ago, the head of Isle of Man Railways, Andy Cowie, was on [Manx Radio’s] Mannin Line at the end of April and he read the report on its way and it's going to cost about £2 million. Now that's a lot of money. But many people said, you know, just get on and do it. But now that you look at it, it's not £2 million. It's gone up to £3 million. So in the last few weeks they've added another million pounds.
How can this be? Well, apparently it's at the insistence of the Treasury, who've recommended an optimism bias of 50%, a contingency. And what is an optimism bias? Well, I've looked it up online, as I'm sure other people have. And in effect, it's the Treasury saying that the Department of Infrastructure are being optimistic in being able to put this project together on budget and on time for £2 million.
So we're going to throw another million pounds at them so that they can overspend whatever they want up to that figure. That's just extraordinary. Imagine if every infrastructure project on the Isle of Man had a 50% contingency on it. We'd be absolutely bankrupt. And where the Treasury got this idea from. Well, apparently they are using the UK's recommendations on optimism bias and I've looked that up as well.
It's very easy. It's in the UK government's Green Book, published by Hmm Treasury, and it is guidance on how to appraise and evaluate public sector projects. And in that a standard project has a contingency of up to 24%, not 5024. And this surely is a standard project, laying a bit of track along the promenade. And who's going to do the work? Well, according to this here, the report states that there is an existing team who are delivering the department's annual rail track renewals programme.
The team have a proven capability. So it's actually local people who know how to do the job, and yet we need another million pounds in case it all goes wrong. Oh, and then the Treasury's say that this contingency is there because of increasing global instability driving up construction and supply costs. Well, hang on a moment. What supply costs? We've already bought the rail. It's been in storage for years. All right. It needs a bit of work doing on it.
But, you know. And is the war in Iran really going to affect our splendid team, who have a proven capability working on the Isle of Man by £1 million? I just don't think so. If I was cynical, I would say it seems to me that the political members of the Treasury, Mr. Thomas, Mr. Andrew Smith, Mr. Cluett, don't want this to happen. They're going to frighten everybody off by saying it's going to cost £3 million.
Even the opening statement isn't right. It says this business case does not seek to make a financial argument for this project. This investment does not make a return. Well it does. It'll increase revenue. So therefore there will be a return. It says that in here. So as I say, this has been debated at the next sitting of Tynwald. And you might think that this little report is going to be put to Tynwald by the Minister for infrastructure for approval so that he can just carry on with the job.
But oh no, that's not what's going to happen. Just believe this. This is the motion he's moving the Tynwald notes, the draft business case. It just notes it. It's not going to approve it. It just notes it what it says. Oh yes there is. Yeah I've seen that. Okay. It's a draft business case. The word draft isn't mentioned anywhere in here. And furthermore, Tynwald is going to be asked to support its progress through the capital projects procedures in accordance with financial regulations.
Well, have you ever heard anything so ridiculous is that after all the years they've been preparing this, after all the months that this has been honed, they want now to carry on talking about it. For how long? There's no timescale for months. For years. Will it go up to a £4 million? And how did the members of Tynwald support this procedure? Do they want them to stand outside the committee room waving banners saying we support this project, or coming in every now and again with plates of chocolate biscuits, apart from which these people here know perfectly well that in a few weeks time the governor is going to dissolve the House of Keys.
They won't exist anymore. They can't even go back into their offices in legislative buildings because they're preparing for the forthcoming general election. So how can they support the progress? I mean, they're just not there. They're not there to ask questions, and they're not. They're holding anyone to account. And anyway, if you look at the details here, this is fantastically detailed. What more is there to talk about? If this isn't one of the greatest cases of kicking the can so far down the road, you can't see it.
Then I don't know what this is. Well, we do know what it is. It's pretty well saying this isn't going to happen for all these ludicrous reasons. Let me just finish by reminding everybody of what Mr. Thomas said in an email in a response to someone, a member of the public writing in about the horse trams and I quote, I've got the words here. He said, if I am re-elected and am able to serve in a senior position in the next government, we will reinstate the horse tramway to the sea terminal in the next Parliament.
Really? So there's a carrot for the constituents, isn't it? They've got to re-elect you so that you can do this. But hang on a moment. You are already elected. You are in the House of Keys. So that's number one ticked. And secondly, you are serving in a senior position. You're the Treasury minister. So everything in this paragraph actually exists at this moment. So if you are a man of your word, if you have any intention of carrying out what you say.
You can do it right now. What we need now is a member of Tynwald to stand up in this debate and move an amendment which says, simply, Tynwald approves this business case and instructs the Department of Infrastructure to get on with the job as soon as possible.
You know, it could be that the only way we will ever see concrete here with a rail track on it, is by courtesy of AI Artificial intelligence, because so far the human intelligence has been somewhat disappointing.